Academy Award Predictions

It’s that exciting time of the year again: time for the Academy to announce their Oscar candidates, and they will be doing so early tomorrow morning. Don’t feel like waking up early to see what’s nominated? I’ll tell you right now what will likely happen.

Best Picture:

After winning the Golden Globe, the Directors Guild Award, and nearly every other critic’s award, one thing is certain: Brokeback Mountain is the film to beat at this year’s Oscars.

The competition seems to be dwelling far behind, but three films have received nominations from all four guild awards (producers, directors, actors, and writers) and are almost certain to receive a Best Picture nomination: George Clooney’s beautifully filmed Good Night, and Good Luck, Paul Haggis’ powerful ensemble Crash, and Bennett Miller’s Capote, which is driven by a standout performance from Phillip Seymour Hoffman. The first two should be considered locks in this category; the third should have enough momentum to sneak in.

Steven Spielberg’s powerful “Munich” could change things, however. The film has impressed critics and audience members alike, but late screeners have hurt the film’s chances. “King Kong,” and “A History of Violence” also look to come up short, after being shut out in major categories. Fernando Mierelles’ “The Constant Gardener” has been gaining momentum lately, but it may be a bit too late.

That should leave the fifth spot open for James Mangold’s Walk the Line, a one-time frontrunner that, thanks to its Globe win, should be able to win Oscar voters over with its sweet sound.

Predicted Nominees: Brokeback Mountain, Good Night, and Good Luck, Crash, Capote, Walk the Line

Best Director:

Let’s get two names out of the way: “Brokeback Mountain’s” Ang Lee and Entertainment Weekly’s cover boy, George Clooney (“Good Night, and Good Luck”). Both are certain to compete for the Best Director prize on Oscar night.

Also likely is “Million Dollar Baby” scribe Paul Haggis, whose “Crash” has emerged as one of the most likely Oscar contenders. Steven Spielberg will also likely earn his six nod, thanks to his powerful direction in “Munich,” and his recent DGA nomination.

The fifth spot is a bit more confusing. Bennett Miller earned a nomination from the Directors Guild for his work on “Capote,” but the film may be too small to earn both Best Picture and Director nominations. The same could be said for James Mangold, whose “Walk the Line” will likely earn acting nods rather than in this category. Arguably two of the finest directions of the year, David Cronenberg’s in “A History of Violence” and Peter Jackson’s in “King Kong,” seem unlikely to earn a nod after being shutout from every award group. Instead, I’m betting “The Constant Gardener’s” Fernando Mierelles will surprise everyone by earning the fifth spot, just as he did two years ago for “City of God.”

Predicted Nominees: Ang Lee, George Clooney, Paul Haggis, Steven Spielberg, Fernando Mierelles

Best Actor:

This year’s Best Actor race is four-fifths complete. That’s because the performances of Phillip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote”), Heath Ledger (“Brokeback Mountain”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Walk the Line”), and David Strathairn (“Good Night, and Good Luck) are locks, in that order.

The fifth spot, however, is much more difficult to predict. Terrence Howard earned a Golden Globe nomination for “Hustle & Flow,” and even propelled the film to a Best Ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild, but his performance will likely be overlooked by a bigger film. “Munich’s” Eric Bana seemed like a possible nominee, until he was ignored by nearly every award show.

Rather, I’m betting that the fifth spot will go to Russell Crowe. Like his character – Jim Braddock – in “Cinderella Man,” Crowe will likely be given another chance in the ring – the Oscar ring.

Predicted Nominees: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, Joaquin Phoenix, David Strathairn, Russell Crowe

Best Actress:

This year’s Best Actress race is a battle between two will-be first-time nominees. Reese Witherspoon emerged as the frontrunner for her lively performance as June Carter Cash in “Walk the Line.” Felicity Huffman, however, has been quickly gaining ground for her performance in “Transamerica” after winning a Best Actress prize at the Golden Globes.

Many of the remaining candidates give standout performances in forgettable films: Charlize Theron in “North Country,” Judi Dench in “Mrs. Henderson Presents,” and Ziyi Zhang in “Memoirs of a Geisha.”

Two of the three will likely get in (I’m betting Theron and Dench), but one will likely fall out to Keira Knightley, whose sweet performance in “Pride & Prejudice” will likely be too much for Oscar voters not to fall in love with her.

Predicted Nominees: Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Huffman, Charlize Theron, Judi Dench, Keira Knightley

Best Supporting Actor:

George Clooney will earn an Oscar nomination for “Syriana,” after swiping the first Golden Globe prize of the night. He will, however, have tougher competition at Oscar night. That’s because Jake Gyllenhaal will put up a strong fight for his daring performance in “Brokeback Mountain.”

“Cinderella Man’s” Paul Giamatti has been snubbed by Oscar voters in the past for much better films, but given this year’s weak category he will be impossible to deny another nomination. The final two spots belong to the stars of two films: “Crash” and “A History of Violence.” Matt Dillon and Don Cheadle both received SAG nominations for their work in the racism-torn “Crash,” yet William Hurt and Ed Harris are too good to ignore in “A History of Violence.” I’m betting Oscar voters will split the vote and award both pictures: Dillon for “Crash” and Hurt for “Violence.”

Predicted Nominees: George Clooney, Jake Gyllenhaal, Paul Giamatti, Matt Dillon, William Hurt

Best Supporting Actress:

This year’s Best Supporting Actress race seems to be the most unpredictable race of the year, but two things are for sure: Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardener”) and Michelle Williams (“Brokeback Mountain”) will receive nominations. Amy Adams also seems like a likely bet, after being praised as the hottest newcomer of the year for her performance in “Junebug.”

Given the increasing support for “Capote,” Catherine Keener should return in the category that earned her a nod for “Being John Malkovich” six year ago. The Screen Actors Guild awarded its fifth spot to “Frances McDormand for “North Country,” but given the film’s lukewarm reception, I’m betting the award will go to Maria Bello, whose daring performance in “A History of Violence” should be too much to ignore.

Predicted Nominees: Rachel Weisz, Michelle Williams, Amy Adams, Catherine Keener, Maria Bello

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