Base Case: e = 0. Then 0 mults are done, which is at least e.
Induction Hypothesis (I.H.): Assume that (mod-expt b k m) does at least k multiplications, for k < e.
Induction Step: Consider (mod-expt b e m).
1 + e/2 + e/2
| \ /
| \ /
by mod* by (mod-expt b e/2 m)
and the I.H.
= 1 + e, which is at least e