INTRODUCTION

PART I. TWO SYSTEMS

1. The characters of the story
   
   
2. Attention and effort

On 2 February 2016 Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow, at Gobbler's Knob, and Spring was just around the corner. What will it be for 2017?   2016 Details “The Groundhog Day celebration is rooted in a German superstition that says if a hibernating animal casts a shadow on Feb. 2, the Christian holiday of Candlemas, winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow is seen, legend says, spring will come early.”  As usual, thousands showed up for the event. Groundhog Day 2016 Guide: Punxsutawney Phil facts, tips for heading to Gobbler's Knob and more

 Wikipedia

Phil's official forecast is predicted on February 2^nd at sunrise at Gobbler's Knob

  Groundhog.org

 Past predictions

  Groundhog recipes for Groundhog Day 2015 revenge

In 2013 Ohio prosecutors ‘indicted’ Punxsutawney Phil over early spring forecast, seek death penalty "In 2013, Phil issued a forecast for an early spring, but bitter cold and snow gripped the eastern U.S. into March that year.  The prosecuting attorney in Butler County, Ohio went as far as to seek the death penalty for Phil for “misrepresentation of early spring” before a Pennsylvania law firm came to Phil’s defense, claiming the Ohio attorney had no jurisdiction to prosecute the Groundhog." The Washing Post, 02 February 2015

Punxsutawney Phil: The Groundhog Behind the Myth
-- Live Science (01 February 2010)

Groundhog Day -- Wikipedia

• the four fields of general anthropology
• culture as a primary concept
• comparative method as major approach
• holism as a primary theoretical goal
• fieldwork as a primary research technique

PART I. TWO SYSTEMS

3. The lazy controller
   
   
4. The associative machine
   
   
5. Cognitive ease
   

• Look carefully at the contents of Chapters 1-7, taking note of the problems/issues in which you are (or might be) particularly interested
  
  
• Start thinking about what anthropology "has to say" about the issues that you have selected
  
  
• Start talking with/texting others in class who might have similar interests
  
  
  • Panel Presentations are four persons per panel, with "audience" participation
    
    
• This week, or by the end of Week 3, Sign up for your Panel Presentation (in Block One of your Moodle folder . . .  note that the Ch. 1 Panel is Wednesday of Week 4)
  
  
• Sign up early for choice selections. If your first choice has already been taken, please select an alternate. (Four persons per Chapter)
  

Ch. I: Week 4 Day 7 Wednesday, 1 February 2017

Ch. 2: Week 6 Day 11 Wednesday, 15 February 2017

Ch. 3: Week 8 Day 15 Wednesday, 1 March 2017

Ch. 4: Week 9 Day 17 Wednesday, 15 March 2017

Ch. 5: Week 10 Day 19 Wednesday, 22 March 2017

Ch. 6: Week 11 Day 21 Wednesday, 29 March 2017

Ch. 7: Week 12 Day 22 Monday, 3 April 2017

PART I. TWO SYSTEMS

6. Norms, surprises, and causes
   
   
7. A machine for jumping to conclusions
   
   
8. How judgments happen
   
   
9. Answering an easier question

• Ch. 1. Anthropological Perspectives on Contemporary Human Problems
  

On 2 February 2016 Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow, at Gobbler's Knob, and Spring was just around the corner. What will it be for 2017? Groundhog Day 2017 Guide   2016 Details “The Groundhog Day celebration is rooted in a German superstition that says if a hibernating animal casts a shadow on Feb. 2, the Christian holiday of Candlemas, winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow is seen, legend says, spring will come early.”  As usual, thousands showed up for the event.

 Wikipedia

Phil's official forecast is predicted on February 2^nd at sunrise at Gobbler's Knob

  Groundhog.org

 Past predictions

  Groundhog recipes for Groundhog Day 2015 revenge

In 2013 Ohio prosecutors ‘indicted’ Punxsutawney Phil over early spring forecast, seek death penalty "In 2013, Phil issued a forecast for an early spring, but bitter cold and snow gripped the eastern U.S. into March that year.  The prosecuting attorney in Butler County, Ohio went as far as to seek the death penalty for Phil for “misrepresentation of early spring” before a Pennsylvania law firm came to Phil’s defense, claiming the Ohio attorney had no jurisdiction to prosecute the Groundhog." The Washing Post, 02 February 2015

Punxsutawney Phil: The Groundhog Behind the Myth
-- Live Science (01 February 2010)

Groundhog Day -- Wikipedia

• one person
• the family
• the community
• a region
• a “culture area”
• a culture / “subculture” / "Tribe"
• a nation
• the world
• an item or action itself
• a “cultural metaphor”

PART II. HEURISTICS AND BIASES

10. The law of small numbers
    
    
11. Anchors
    
    
12. The science of availability

PART II. HEURISTICS AND BIASES

13. Availability, emotion, and risk
    
    
14. Tom W's specialty
    
    
15. Linda: less is more

• Ch. 2 Scale, Adaptation, and the Environmental Crisis

PART II. HEURISTICS AND BIASES

10. Causes trump statistics
    
    
11. Regression to the mean
    
    
12. Taming intuitive predictions

PART III. OVERCONFIDENCE

19. The illusion of understanding
    
    
20. The illusion of validity
    
    
21. Intuitions vs. formulas

After the Exam . . .

• Ch. 3. Natural Resources and the Culture of Consumption

PART III. OVERCONFIDENCE

22. Expert intuition: when can we trust it?
    
    
23. The outside view
    
    
24. The engine of capitalism

• Ch. 4. Malnutrition and the Evolution of Food Systems

PART IV. CHOICES

25. Bernoulli's errors
    
    
26. Prospect theory
    
    
27. The endowment effect

• Ch. 5. Commercial Factory-Food Systems

PART IV. CHOICES

28. Bad events
    
    
29. The fourfold pattern
    
    
30. Rare events
    
    
31. Risk policies

• Ch. 6. Population Problem

PART IV. CHOICES

32. Keeping score
    
    
33. Reversals
    
    
34. Frames and reality

• Ch. 7. Poverty and Conflict

PART V. TWO SELVES

35. Two selves
    
    
36. Life as a story
    
    
37. Experienced well-being

PART V. TWO SELVES

38. Thinking about life

CONCLUSIONS

• Ch. 8. The Future

PART V. TWO SELVES

35. Two selves
    
    
36. Life as a story
    
    
37. Experienced well-being
    
    
38. Thinking about life

CONCLUSIONS

• Review as needed

PART V. TWO SELVES

• Review

• Review as needed